Yellowknife — The Northwest Territories’ population fell slightly over the last year, according to estimates published by the N.W.T. Bureau of Statistics, making the territory the only Canadian jurisdiction to record a year‑on‑year decline for the July 1 population figure.
The bureau’s estimates show the territory’s population decreased from 46,031 to 45,904 between July 2025 and July 2026, a decline of roughly 0.3 per cent. By contrast, the national average growth for the same period was about 0.5 per cent.
Migration the main driver
Interprovincial migration was the principal factor behind the drop. Between April and June 2026, an estimated 548 people moved into the N.W.T. from other parts of Canada, while 933 residents left for elsewhere in the country — a net loss of 385 people. The bureau described that net loss as the largest quarterly outflow in recent years.
International migration to the territory has remained relatively steady in recent years and helped offset some population loss, but it did not fully counterbalance the interprovincial departures during the latest reporting period.
Officials did not assign a single cause for the decline in the briefing note accompanying the figures. However, the report notes economic shifts that could affect population flows, including the fact that two of the N.W.T.’s three diamond mines began to close this year, reducing major local employment sources.
Ageing population adds pressure
Alongside migration trends, demographic change is reshaping the territory. The proportion of seniors in the N.W.T. has risen markedly: seniors made up 12 per cent of the population in 2016 and now account for 17.8 per cent. That roughly 50 per cent increase over the decade is the third‑largest rise among provinces and territories, behind Nunavut and Yukon.
Those shifts point to an ageing population with potential implications for health care, housing and labour supply, especially in smaller communities where services are already stretched.
- Population (July 1, 2025): 46,031
- Population (July 1, 2026): 45,904
- Net interprovincial migration (Apr–Jun 2026): -385
- Seniors (2016 → 2026): 12% → 17.8%
The bureau highlighted that this is the first time the N.W.T.’s July 1 population estimate has flatlined or decreased year‑over‑year since 2023.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Population change (year) | -0.3% |
| National average change | +0.5% |
| Yukon | +2.5% |
| Nunavut | +2.3% |
Outlook and local context
Looking ahead, the territory expects major federal investments in defence and construction that officials say should drive growth, particularly in Yellowknife. The bureau noted those projects could produce a population bump, but the effect had not yet materialized in the current estimates.
Economic transitions — including the downsizing of two diamond mines — and changing demographic patterns underline uncertainties for employers, local governments and service providers. Smaller workforces can tighten labour markets in some sectors while reducing demand for others, and a larger senior cohort will alter service needs.
Policy responses will likely focus on attracting and retaining residents, supporting an ageing population and managing the timing of expected federal projects so communities are prepared for potential population fluctuations. The bureau’s release stops short of prescribing measures; it provides the figures for governments, Indigenous governments and other stakeholders to inform planning.
For residents and employers in the territory, the new estimates are a reminder that population dynamics in the N.W.T. remain fluid: while growth has returned to the North in territories such as Yukon and Nunavut, the N.W.T. faces the twin challenges of out‑migration and an ageing population as it navigates an uncertain economic transition.
